Hypothesis
A specific, falsifiable claim the experiment tests.
## Hypothesis
Across seeds 1 through 3, the mean final-validation-loss difference between
accumulated and true batches is below 0.02.
Writtenbefore results
Used byreviewers approving the design
Section headings
Method
The instrument, conditions, seeds, metric, code revision, and the command that produces the result, so that another session can rerun it.
## Method
- **Instrument**: deterministic `scripts/simulate.py` toy simulator
- **Conditions**: `true-batch` and `accumulated`
- **Seeds**: 1, 2, and 3
- **Primary metric**: mean paired final-validation-loss difference
- **Revision**: `synthetic-code-v1`
- **Key command**: `python3 scripts/simulate.py --condition <condition> --seed <seed>`
Writtenbefore results
Used bywhoever reruns or audits the experiment
Register an experiment
Estimands
The quantities the experiment measures, one ### E# heading each. Each heading carries a registration value fixed before results, which separates planned tests from discoveries made in the same run.
## Estimands
### E1 Mean paired loss difference
**Registration**: registered. The statistic is the mean paired
…
Writtenbefore results
Used byreviewers, findings, and CLAIMS.md
Estimands and registration
E1 Mean paired loss difference
One registered quantity with its statistic and threshold. A claim cites it by ID, as EXP-002:E1, so a reader can trace the claim to this definition and its result.
### E1 Mean paired loss difference
**Registration**: registered. The statistic is the mean paired
final-validation-loss difference across seeds 1 through 3; the threshold is
0.02; a mean at or above it fails P1.
Writtenbefore results
Cited byCLAIMS.md and the finding
Estimands and registration
E2 Per-seed loss difference
A second registered quantity: every seed must pass, not only the mean. Because it is registered, its result counts as a planned test.
### E2 Per-seed loss difference
**Registration**: registered. Every paired difference must be below 0.02; one
seed at or above it fails P2.
Writtenbefore results
Cited byCLAIMS.md and the finding
Estimands and registration
Preregistered predictions
The predicted outcome for each estimand, written before the run so the result can be scored against it.
## Preregistered predictions (a priori)
- **P1: Mean equivalence (E1)**: the mean paired difference is below 0.02.
- **P2: Seed consistency (E2)**: every paired difference is below 0.02.
Writtenbefore results
Used bythe session that scores the outcomes
Register an experiment
Decision rule
What to do for each material outcome, decided in advance. The session that processes the result applies the rule instead of deciding afresh after seeing the numbers.
## Decision rule (a priori)
- **If P1 and P2 hold**: support a synthetic-scale equivalence finding.
- **Otherwise**: keep RQ1 open and report the failing seeds.
Writtenbefore results
Used bythe session that processes the result
Process a result
Decisions
Dated design choices between credible options. Each entry names the option that lost, what the choice costs, and what settled it. Entries are added and never edited.
## Decisions
- **2026-08-14** — Kept the 0.02 margin rather than tightening it to 0.01 after
[[EXP-001-accumulation-pilot]] came in at 0.004: a margin chosen after seeing
the pilot would depend on the result it is meant to judge. Costs sensitivity
to differences between 0.01 and 0.02. Source: pilot-gate review.
- **2026-08-14** — Reused seed 1 rather than drawing seeds 4 to 6: the paired
comparison stays anchored to the pilot. Costs one fresh seed; E1 is a
replication at seed 1 and a fresh test only at seeds 2 and 3. Source:
pilot-gate review.
Writtenwhen a design choice is made
Used byreviewers asking why the design looks the way it does
Design decisions
Human review
The approvals at each checkpoint: the design, the predictions, and the interpretation. A status value does not record approval; this section does.
## Human review
- **Design**: paired-seed comparison approved after the pilot gate.
- **Preregistration**: predictions and threshold approved before the run.
- **Analysis and interpretation**: results, limitations, and proposed finding
reviewed before synthesis.
Writtenat each review checkpoint
Used byagents checking what they may run
Review the design
Runs
Each execution attempt: backend, job ID, description, status, and where its artifacts are. Usage in units belongs with the attempt; money goes in the spend ledger.
## Runs
| Backend | Job ID | Description | Status | Artifacts |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Slurm | 48161 | Both conditions at seeds 1 through 3 | completed | `results/EXP-002/48161/metrics.json` |
Writtenas attempts launch and finish
Used byresult processing and spend accounting
Resources
Results
Observed values with their uncertainty and effect sizes, and the checks that the output is valid.
## Results
| Seed | True batch | Accumulated | Paired difference |
|---|---:|---:|---:|
| 1 | 0.799 | 0.803 | 0.004 |
| 2 | 0.803 | 0.807 | 0.004 |
| 3 | 0.796 | 0.800 | 0.004 |
The mean paired difference was 0.004.
…
Writtenafter the run
Used bythe conclusion, findings, and claims
Execution and scientific evidence
Outcomes against preregistered predictions
Each prediction scored as confirmed, partial, refuted, null-confirmed, or not tested, beside what was predicted and what was observed.
### Outcomes against preregistered predictions
| Prediction | Verdict | Predicted | Observed |
|---|---|---|---|
| P1 | confirmed | Mean difference < 0.02 | 0.004 |
| P2 | confirmed | Every difference < 0.02 | All three were 0.004 |
Writtenafter the run
Used bythe decision rule and reviewers
Process a result
Conclusion
What the result means, the scope at which it was tested, and threats to validity.
## Conclusion
Both preregistered equivalence checks pass within the deterministic simulator.
The design does not test optimizer state, floating-point order, or a real model.
Writtenafter the run, then reviewed
Used byfindings and claims
Process a result
Follow-ups
Concrete next steps the result calls for, checked off when done.
## Follow-ups
- [x] Synthesize the pilot and comparison in a finding.
Writtenafter the run
Used byPRIORITIES.md and the next session
Follow-up records
Artifacts
Where the analyzed output lives and the revision that produced it. A full record also gives a content hash and retrieval date.
## Artifacts
- `results/EXP-002/48161/metrics.json`, fictional artifact at revision `synthetic-code-v1`
Writtenwhen results are banked
Used byanyone re-analyzing or auditing the result
Execution and scientific evidence
Findings
Links to the cross-experiment findings that use this result.
## Findings
- [[2026-08-16-accumulation-matches-large-batch]]
Writtenwhen a finding draws on the result
Used byanyone tracing what a result supports